18 FIGURE 2.13 Projection of annual maximum daily rainfall for Hong Kong relative to the average of 1995-2014 under the Intermediate and Very High GHG emissions scenarios considered by IPCC AR6 2 Climate Science – “Our climate is our future” FIGURE 2.14 Projected changes in annual mean sea level for Hong Kong relative to the average of 1995-2014 Coloured solid curves and the grey broken curve show median projections under the five emissions scenarios and the ‘low confidence’ scenarios respectively considered by IPCC AR6 Black horizontal lines indicate median projections in 2100. Coloured bars indicate likely ranges in 2100 under the 5 emissions scenarios. The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. The grey bars indicate the 17th83rd percentile range of projection in 2100 under the ‘low confidence’ scenarios. 1. Or increase of 3.3°C relative to the average of 1885-1904 (the earliest 20-year period with average instrumental temperature data available at HKO). For comparison, the 2°C target of Paris Agreement is increase in the global temperature by the end of the century relative to the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. 2. Or increase of 4.9°C relative to the average of 1885-1904. Also see note 1. 3. https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/climate_change/proj_hk_msl_med_conf_info.htm. 4. https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/climate_change/proj_hk_msl_low_conf_info.htm. 20212040 20312050 20412060 20512070 20612080 20712090 20812100 20212040 20312050 20412060 20512070 20612080 20712090 20812100 Intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario Very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Change in % Change in % 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Change in m Likely ranges (2100) Low Confidence (2100) SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Low confidence scenario under SSP5-8.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP2-4.5 SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9
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