3 Reduced travel demand, ridership and profitability • Physical barriers to accessing bus/train stops • Inconvenience of public transport networks Curtailment of services and routes in community Deterioration of physical and mental well-being Deteriorated socio-economic conditions Population ageing or shrinkage in community Dependence on private vehicle for mobility Financial burden on budget Lack of people accessing local businesses and services Compromised fiscal capacity to support public transport Ageing of individuals Ageing of bus/taxi fleet drivers Risk of road accidents Reliance on subsidies to cover losses Limited opportunities for outings and social activity People migrate to larger urban areas with more transport options Need to implement new transport services to cover gaps left by curtailed routes Loss of funds to provide community services Dependence on transport services Need to stop driving Driver shortages Elderly people Transport providers Municipalities Macro-conditions Type of stakeholder or conditions Mobility challenges caused by population ageing and shrinkage Figure 1 Barriers to Smooth Implementation and Diffusion Despite the strong expectations for emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges, the interviews reveal multiple barriers standing in the way of realizing these expectations, as Table 2 summarises. MaaS Autonomous vehicles Human resources Lack of human resources and expertise ● ● Organisational Resistance to change or difficulties in aligning interests ● ● Data availability and use ● ○ Lack of incumbent automakers driving vehicle innovation and market creation ○ ● Financial High purchase and operation costs ● ● Low profitability ● ● Societal Low digital literacy among the elderly ● ● Low ridership or uptake of service ● ○ Technological Inferiority or limitations of solutions ○ ● Environmental Unique geographic or socioeconomic conditions ● ● Institutional Restrictive laws, regulations and institutions ● ○ Legal responsibility in case of accidents ○ ● For example, as for human resources, there are not enough experts who can lead mobility innovation projects especially in rural areas, drivers and volunteers, as well as maintenance staff for the intricate technologies. Also, the high purchase and operation costs, including the costs of remote monitoring and cloud-based data systems, further increase the financial burdens on municipalities, who are seeing declining fiscal capacity due to population ageing. Low IT literacy among elderly people is another major obstacle to the implementation and upscaling of emerging solutions. Recommendations Pay Closer Attention to Negative Impacts of Population Ageing on Innovation The study reveals that the shared expectations among industry and government stakeholders about the potential of emerging technologies to solve complex challenges caused by population ageing are stimulating the development and implementation of innovations in transport. However, population ageing can also impede innovation, since a society’s resources and creativity – including workers, cognitive and financial capacity, and the willingness to adopt new practices – can shrink as the population ages. Researchers and policymakers interested in the development and implementation of emerging technologies should be aware of these potentially negative impacts of population ageing. Core barriers to implementation and diffusion Table 2 Note: ●indicates barries with a strong obstructive impact; ○indicates barries with weaker or no impact. Public Policy BULLETIN Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Overcome Mobility Challenges Caused by Population Ageing: A Case Study of Japan
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