3 transport disruptions and waterlogging—critical issues for transport-dependent firms, which suffer 6.47% productivity loss from ≥250mm rainfall. Align infrastructure planning with regional rainfall patterns, focusing on southern China (with 1730mm annual average rainfall) and other wet regions where firms face the heaviest losses. Align Policies with Sustainable SSP Scenarios Integrate climate resilience into long-term environmental policies by adopting pathways consistent with SSP1–2.6 (low-emission, sustainable development). Implement carbon emission controls and clean energy transitions to reduce extreme rainfall impacts—projections show this can cut the effects of ≥250mm rainfall by over 50% by 2100. Avoid highemission pathways like SSP5–8.5, which could double extreme rainfall’s adverse effects by 2100, leading to up to 14.9 billion CNY in output losses. Embed rainfall impact assessments into industrial planning to ensure policies address sectorspecific vulnerabilities, such as the high losses in agricultural processing and outdoor production. At the macro level, infrastructure construction plays a critical role: anti-flood dams protect downstream firms, with downstream enterprises gaining a 5–50% productivity premium compared to upstream firms after dam construction (the premium increases as the distance to the dam decreases). Additionally, improved highway infrastructure and drainage systems significantly reduce productivity losses by mitigating transport disruptions and waterlogging issues caused by extreme rainfall. Recommendations Targeted Support for Vulnerable Firms Prioritize assistance for high-risk entities—labor-intensive, low-tech, and foreign-owned firms, as well as those in agricultural processing and outdoor production sectors— by subsidizing non-productive investments such as insurance and inventory reserves, which effectively hedge against extreme rainfall risks. Offer tailored technical training to enhance operational resilience, with a focus on firms located in rainfall-prone regions like southern China, where extreme rainfall impacts are most severe. For non-state-owned firms, introduce supportive policies (e.g., streamlined administrative procedures, temporary financial relief) to ease market entry and exit pressures during climate shocks, as they are more responsive to such adjustments than state-owned counterparts. Strengthen Infrastructure in High-Risk Areas Accelerate the construction and upgrading of climateresilient infrastructure in rainfall-prone regions. Prioritize anti-flood dam expansion in key river basins, leveraging evidence that downstream firms gain a 5–50% productivity premium post-construction (with greater benefits for firms closer to dams). Enhance highway networks and drainage systems to mitigate Figure 2 Heterogeneous rainfall effects on productivity by industry Figure 3 Heterogeneous rainfall effects on productivity by region The impact of rainfall on productivity: Implications for Chinese manufacturing Public Policy BULLETIN
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NDk5Njg=