SPRING 2022 NO.63 / THOUGHT LEADERSHIP BRIEF 2 ISSUE COVID has been a substantial economic, social, and health crisis – leading to deaths, economic recessions, and social restrictions across the world. There has been substantial variation in both COVID outcomes and policy approaches across countries. COVID is not over. But after two years of the pandemic, it is possible to draw some preliminary conclusions about which countries have performed ‘best’ through the crisis. To provide a summary measure of this, I construct a ‘COVID performance index’ that combines health outcomes (excess deaths per capita over the full COVID period); economic outcomes (cumulative GDP from Q1 2020 relative to full year GDP in 2019); and a measure of the restrictiveness of COVID measures (the average stringency of restrictions over the full COVID period). Combining these measures for selected economies produces the rankings presented in Exhibit 1. Several economies from Asia (including Australia and New Zealand) rank strongly, relative to major economies in Europe and the Americas. In particular, economies like Taiwan and South Korea have done particularly well to date. There has been a distinctively ‘Asian approach’ to controlling COVID, which relies on border closures and tough domestic restrictions, including lockdown measures. Many of these Asian economies moved quickly in early 2020 to impose these measures. In many Asian economies, this led to very low COVID deaths compared to other regions as well as the relatively rapid re-opening of their domestic economies – which supported economic activity. Several Asian economies, notably China, Taiwan, and South Korea, saw very rapid economic recoveries from mid-2020 – as domestic spending resumed, and their external sectors benefited from very strong external demand. Export growth globally (and in Asia particularly) has been very resilient. As a key location for global manufacturing activity, Asia’s economic recovery process benefited strongly from these dynamics. However, there is significant variation across Asia as well. Economies such as India and Indonesia have seen COVID weak outcomes in terms of cases and deaths, in line with some of the weaker performers in Europe. And a number of Asian economies have Figure 1. Landfall COVID Performance Index, March 2022 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Taiwan New Zealand Ireland South Korea Japan Finland Denmark Norway Singapore Australia China Sweden Switzerland Israel Hong Kong Netherlands Belgium Canada Germany France Austria United Kingdom United States Spain Italy Figure 2. Landfall COVID Performance Index, Selected Asian Economies, March 2022 Source: Landfall Strategy Group Source: Landfall Strategy Group 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Taiwan New Zealand South Korea Japan Brunei Singapore Australia Vietnam China Thailand Hong Kong Malaysia Indonesia Philippines India
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