4 David Skilling is the Founding Director of Landfall Strategy Group, an economic and policy advisory firm that works with governments, firms and financial institutions in Australasia, Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. David has previously worked in various roles in the New Zealand Government, founded an independent economic think tank in New Zealand, and was with the McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey & Co in Singapore. David holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and a Master in Public Policy degree from Harvard University, as well as a Master of Commerce degree in Economics from the University of Auckland. David was named as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in 2008. SPRING 2022 NO.63 / THOUGHT LEADERSHIP BRIEF Looking forward, it is possible that the strong relative performance of Asian economies will change (even without new variants of COVID emerging). This is partly because the Asian economies that have done well through imposing tough lockdowns and other restrictions are likely to have the hardest time in lifting these measures. In some cases, this is because of the political costs associated with changing approach; in other cases, it is because of higher levels of national risk aversion – countries that have got used to low numbers of cases and deaths are likely to be cautious about opening up. For example, New Zealand was slow to remove border restrictions. And it is likely that China and Hong Kong will retain border and domestic restrictions for at least the rest of this year. In addition, the relatively low vaccination rates in some Asian economies may mean that COVID will remain an issue that can disrupt economic and social life for longer than in Europe and North America. There are some significant exposures across Asian economies. Asian economies will need to carefully manage the direct and indirect effects of COVID through the remainder of the pandemic. National strengths and weaknesses around the world have been exposed by COVID. This will not be the last pandemic, and nor will it be the last major external shock that countries face. Investing to strengthen state capability and social/political institutions is important for strengthening future performance. Read all HKUST IEMS Thought Leadership Briefs at http://iems.ust.hk/tlb T: (852) 3469 2215 E: iems@ust.hk W: http://iems.ust.hk A: Lo Ka Chung Building, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon With Support from
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