Figure 1: Exposure–Sensitivity–Adaptation framework ASSESSMENT Our approach links spatial patterns with social perspectives, offering nuanced insights into the impacts of urban heat and adaptation. Our study utilises the “Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptation” framework (Fig. 1) from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, integrating spatial analysis with qualitative insights to evaluate heat vulnerability. We assessed spatial “exposure” to extreme heat using indicators such as Land Surface Temperature and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, revealing higher heat exposure in urban cores with limited greenery, which is exacerbated by the urban heat island effect due to extensive concrete surfaces. “Sensitivity” focuses on the density and proportion of older populations, identifying urban centres with high concentrations of older adults, particularly in economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods, as more susceptible due to health vulnerabilities and social isolation. “Adaptation” evaluates access to hospitals, metro stations, green spaces, education levels, and per capita disposable income, highlighting disparities between urban cores and peripheral areas. We identify key drivers of vulnerability to extreme heat among older adults in two Chinese cities: Jinan, in Shandong province, and Guangzhou, in Guangdong province. Our spatial analysis suggests that, in Jinan, high population density and a significant proportion of older adults were primary factors contributing to heat vulnerability. Our spatial study revealed that areas with higher concentrations of older residents, particularly in economically disadvantaged and peripheral communities, such as Guanzhaying, Hongjialou, Huairen, Huanghe, and Qilishan, face elevated risks due to limited infrastructure and services. The lack of adequate infrastructure, including cooling centres and healthcare facilities, exacerbated the risks faced by these communities. In contrast, Guangzhou’s vulnerability was more closely tied to education levels and the availability of urban amenities. Education level is the most significant driver of heat risk, with high-risk communities, such as Beijing, Binjiang, Changgang, and Huadi, exhibiting lower educational attainment and limited access to urban infrastructure such as parks and healthcare services. Our interaction analyses reveal synergies, including the combination of education and green spaces in Guangzhou and the integration of hospital resources with green spaces, underscoring the importance of combining resources for resilience. Furthermore, our spatial analysis identifies areas with lower green coverage and socioeconomic disadvantages as particularly vulnerable, with Guangzhou’s urban core and Jinan’s periphery exhibiting distinct patterns. We extended our spatial work with qualitative research of people’s lived experiences, expanding the Protection Motivation Theory to incorporate impacts on mental well-being and exacerbating factors, such as age, gender, health status, and prior heat exposure experience. We found that extreme heat induces psychological distress like anxiety, depression, and irritability, cognitive impairments, sleep disturbances, and social isolation. In Jinan, older adults experience episodic distress during seasonal heatwaves and recover after the event. In contrast, the persistent heat and humidity in Guangzhou causes chronic stress and adaptation fatigue. Our findings, based on in-depth interviews with older adults and expert interviews in urban planning and healthcare, reveal the lived experiences of these individuals. In Jinan, older adults adopt short-term behavioural changes, such as avoiding peak heat hours, driven by seasonal self-efficacy. In contrast, chronic heat and humidity in Guangzhou leads to resignation, compounded by cultural beliefs like scepticism toward air conditioning and digital exclusion. High response costs, including financial and health-related burdens, limit the use of modern cooling technology, leading to a reliance on traditional methods such as hydration and natural ventilation. Furthermore, we highlighted the importance of adaptive capacity in determining how communities respond to heat. In Guangzhou, wealthier areas housed more healthcare resources and green spaces, leading to uneven adaptation capabilities. Conversely, Jinan’s peripheral communities faced limited access to cooling centres and medical services, significantly heightening risks during extreme heat events. These findings underscore the need for localised adaptation strategies that cater to each city’s vulnerability profile, taking into account the specific socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of urban areas. 2 FALL 2025 NO.102 / SUSTAINABILITY & CLIMATE RISKS THOUGHT LEADERSHIP BRIEF SERIES
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NDk5Njg=