INTRODUCING HKUST IEMS THOUGHT LEADERSHIP BRIEFS
Providing recommendations on key issues facing emerging markets.
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Watch the video recording of the seminar at
Jack Goldstone
, Virginia E. and John T. Hazel Professor of
Public Policy at George Mason University and Senior Fellow at
the Brookings Institution, presented his research on the effects
of demographic change on the global security environment.
First and foremost, Prof. Goldstone made clear that he does
not see overpopulation as a threat now or in the near future.
He believes that nature is resilient, and that the planet
will be able to handle growth in population. Whether the
environment becomes so damaged that life on earth becomes
less tenable is a related but separate issue that will require an
appropriate international policy response.
He focused much of his presentation on the geographic areas
and population groups forecasted to experience the greatest
population growth, namely: Sub-Saharan Africa, the global
middle class, major cities, Muslims, and the elderly.
Although he admitted that a growing middle class appears to
be a good thing, Prof. Goldstone also pointed out that there is
a dark side to the rapid growth of the middle class. In Africa,
education has a tendency to produce radicalism. Although
education can be liberating, it can also lead to romanticism,
nationalism, and unrest. Since not all upwardly mobile people
are law-abiding citizens, their growth in numbers can lead
to increased crime. Many areas that see a growing middle
class also see much of their population migrate away, taking
their skills and money with them. Prof. Goldstone made
an interesting point that the world
has never seen a time when elderly
people were the majority, and it will
be difficult to predict exactly what will
happen when this occurs.
He also discussed the importance of Western countries
working towards finding common ground with Muslim
populations especially given that Muslim populations are
set to have the highest growth out of any subgroup in the
coming 50 years.
Although he presented copious amounts of data to demonstrate
the coming challenges of demographic growth in future
decades, Prof. Goldstone remained positive that better
policies could address the potential problems associated with
such growth and turn them into opportunities for better
international dialogue and global cooperation.
THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON
THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
HKUST IEMS Academic Seminar (2014.10.06)
