Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Overcome Mobility Challenges Caused by Population Ageing: A Case Study of Japan Gregory TRENCHER, Masaru YARIME, Jeongsoo YU Policy Focus In today’s era, population ageing is an accelerating trend affecting all countries, especially in the global north and eastern Asia. The ageing and shrinking population can cause negative impacts on economic growth, medical and fiscal systems, and the socio-economic vitality of communities and cities. Overcoming these challenges is now an important task for technology. With the development of autonomous (self-driving) vehicles and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), mobility becomes a particularly important area where technological innovations are expected to address problems. Japan, home to the world’s most rapidly ageing population, has been testing novel mobility technologies and services in response to population ageing and shrinkage. This provides an ideal opportunity to observe how emerging technologies can tackle mobility challenges. This policy bulletin introduces a study by G. Trencher et al. (2024) that examines Japan’s experiences to address the following questions: • What types of mobility problems are occurring due to population ageing and decline? • What are the expectations of key stakeholders about how emerging mobility technologies could mitigate these problems? • What are the main barriers standing in the way of achieving these expectations? Key Points ► Population ageing is accelerating globally, posing challenges to mobility, a key area where emerging technologies are widely expected to tackle challenges. ► By analyzing experiences from Japan, this study examines the mobility-related problems, expectations regarding utilizing technological innovations, and implementation barriers. ► Population ageing in Japan is creating interlinked and selfreinforcing mobility problems. ► Tensions between strong expectations about technologies and the starker reality confronting them are revealed, and policy implications are considered. A self-driving bus in Sakai Town in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. 11th Issue December 2024 Public Policy BULLETIN
2 communities, towns and cities. Safety risks: The inconvenience of fixed schedules and routes, and downscaled services due to profit losses in public transport mutually causes many people to drive despite their deteriorated physical and cognitive functions, posing potential safety risks. Reduction of ridership, transport networks and access to mobility: This set of issues are mutual reinforcing, creating a vicious cycle. Besides, barriers to accessing local services hurt the socio-economic health of communities, contributing to the collapse of communities when residents move to larger towns to gain better access to services and mobility. Driver shortages: The ageing and retirement of drivers leads to driver shortages, which further causes the bus and taxi companies to cut back on service routes. Deterioration of health and welfare: Exacerbated personal mobility decreases elderly people’s opportunities to access essential services and engage in social activities, which negatively impacts their health and well-being. Expectations about the Potential of Emerging Technologies to Tackle the Challenges Safety risks: Introduction of autonomous vehicles and MaaS is expected to reduce road accidents by making public transport more accessible and convenient, by integrating on-demand and optimised schedules, and by increasing affordability via ridesharing. Reduction of ridership, transport networks and access to mobility: Innovations are expected to halt the selfreinforcing cycle, by allowing operators to use data to optimise routes, and utilise autonomous driving to reduce driver-related expenses, and by making it easier for the elderly to access public transport and local services. Driver shortages: Self-driving technologies are expected to reduce the demand for drivers or alleviate license requirements of drivers. Deterioration of health and welfare: Respondents expect that emerging technologies will increase chances for outings and socialisation, as well as direct access to medical facilities, thereby contributing to health and wellbeing. Socio-economic conditions: It is anticipated that individual health and well-being will accumulate at the societal level, creating healthy and dynamic communities. Meanwhile, improved transportation will increase residents’ visits to local businesses and local spending. Some projects also consider that shifting from building-based to vehiclebased town halls or medical services could save money for municipalities. Study Methodology The study employs a qualitative approach, utilizing an emergent thematic content analysis. The analysis is based on data from 16 semi-structured interviews with 28 practitioners and researchers, supplemented with documentation from project actors and research organizations. The data was collected between September 2022 and March 2023. The analysis focuses on the experiences of stakeholders involved in state-supported mobility projects, specifically those using MaaS and autonomous vehicles. Table 1 summarises the goals and typical cases of each innovation. Technology Objective Description Mobility-asa-Service (MaaS) Carry individuals to a destination (medical facility, shopping district, etc.) On-demand and shared vehicles provide door-to-door transport service in regional or rural settings, using AI and app-based reservations to optimise route selection and scheduling (location of example case: Maebashi City in Gunma Prefecture). Bring vehicle-based services to the individual Medical MaaS: Vans equipped with medical equipment and a nurse visit elderly persons at the domicile, providing online doctor consultations and a basic medical check-up (Ina City in Nagano Prefecture, Taki Town in Mie Prefecture). Town-hall MaaS: Vans equipped with public administration equipment visit a fixed point in a rural or regional setting, providing services usually conducted in the town hall, such as issuing residence certificates or social security numbers (Iwaki City in Fukushima Prefecture, Shonai Town in Yamagata Prefecture). Autonomous vehicles Partially or completely replace human drivers in shared vehicles Self-driving carts provide ondemand and door-to-door ridesharing services in suburban housing estates (Kasugai City in Aichi Prefecture, Nagano City in Osaka Prefecture). Self-driving buses serve fixed routes in the commercial centre of a regional city according to a predetermined schedule (Sakai City, Ibaraki Prefecture). Findings and Analysis Interlinked Mobility Problems Caused by Population Ageing Interviews reveal that Japan’s ageing and shrinking population is causing mobility problems for three main groups: elderly people, transport providers and municipalities. Figure 1 shows how these problems are connected and self-reinforcing, which collectively exerts a negative impact on the socio-economic vitality of Key models of next-generation mobility services under trial in Japan Table 1 Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Overcome Mobility Challenges Caused by Population Ageing: A Case Study of Japan Public Policy BULLETIN
3 Reduced travel demand, ridership and profitability • Physical barriers to accessing bus/train stops • Inconvenience of public transport networks Curtailment of services and routes in community Deterioration of physical and mental well-being Deteriorated socio-economic conditions Population ageing or shrinkage in community Dependence on private vehicle for mobility Financial burden on budget Lack of people accessing local businesses and services Compromised fiscal capacity to support public transport Ageing of individuals Ageing of bus/taxi fleet drivers Risk of road accidents Reliance on subsidies to cover losses Limited opportunities for outings and social activity People migrate to larger urban areas with more transport options Need to implement new transport services to cover gaps left by curtailed routes Loss of funds to provide community services Dependence on transport services Need to stop driving Driver shortages Elderly people Transport providers Municipalities Macro-conditions Type of stakeholder or conditions Mobility challenges caused by population ageing and shrinkage Figure 1 Barriers to Smooth Implementation and Diffusion Despite the strong expectations for emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges, the interviews reveal multiple barriers standing in the way of realizing these expectations, as Table 2 summarises. MaaS Autonomous vehicles Human resources Lack of human resources and expertise ● ● Organisational Resistance to change or difficulties in aligning interests ● ● Data availability and use ● ○ Lack of incumbent automakers driving vehicle innovation and market creation ○ ● Financial High purchase and operation costs ● ● Low profitability ● ● Societal Low digital literacy among the elderly ● ● Low ridership or uptake of service ● ○ Technological Inferiority or limitations of solutions ○ ● Environmental Unique geographic or socioeconomic conditions ● ● Institutional Restrictive laws, regulations and institutions ● ○ Legal responsibility in case of accidents ○ ● For example, as for human resources, there are not enough experts who can lead mobility innovation projects especially in rural areas, drivers and volunteers, as well as maintenance staff for the intricate technologies. Also, the high purchase and operation costs, including the costs of remote monitoring and cloud-based data systems, further increase the financial burdens on municipalities, who are seeing declining fiscal capacity due to population ageing. Low IT literacy among elderly people is another major obstacle to the implementation and upscaling of emerging solutions. Recommendations Pay Closer Attention to Negative Impacts of Population Ageing on Innovation The study reveals that the shared expectations among industry and government stakeholders about the potential of emerging technologies to solve complex challenges caused by population ageing are stimulating the development and implementation of innovations in transport. However, population ageing can also impede innovation, since a society’s resources and creativity – including workers, cognitive and financial capacity, and the willingness to adopt new practices – can shrink as the population ages. Researchers and policymakers interested in the development and implementation of emerging technologies should be aware of these potentially negative impacts of population ageing. Core barriers to implementation and diffusion Table 2 Note: ●indicates barries with a strong obstructive impact; ○indicates barries with weaker or no impact. Public Policy BULLETIN Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Overcome Mobility Challenges Caused by Population Ageing: A Case Study of Japan
4 Follow Us on Social Media Contact Us (852) 3469 2721 ppolpr@ust.hk The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology c/o Division of Public Policy (PPOL) Room 4611, Academic Building, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong Masaru YARIME is an Associate Professor at the Division of Public Policy and the Division of Environment and Sustainability at HKUST. He also has appointments as an Honorary Associate Professor at the Department of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Public Policy at University College London and a Visiting Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo. He is interested in exploring data-driven innovation to address sustainability challenges and implications for public policy and governance. He serves on the editorial board of Sustainability Science, Environmental Science and Policy, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Frontiers in Sustainable Cities - Innovation and Governance, and Data & Policy. Gregory TRENCHER is an associate professor at the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies at Kyoto University in Japan. His research focuses on decarbonisation and energy policy and the governance of energy and sustainability transitions. Current projects are investigating topics such as fossil-fuel phase-outs, company decarbonisation behaviour, next-generation mobility and smart cities. He serves on the editorial board for Energy Research & Social Science and as an editor for Frontiers in Sustainable Cities. His research has been published in Nature Communications, One Earth, Environmental Research Letters, PLOS One, Climatic Change and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Main Reference Trencher, Gregory, Masaru Yarime, and Jeongsoo Yu. "Using emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges caused by population ageing: Experiences from Japan." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 208 (2024): 123729. Consider Low-cost, Low-risk and Easy-to-implement Solutions From Japan’s experiences, the study identifies obstacles in applying emerging technologies to address problems caused by population ageing. Governments and transport planners should consider low-cost, low-risk and easy-toimplement solutions with lower reliance on expensive or unproven technologies. For example, instead of solely promoting costly new technologies such as autonomous vehicles, AI-based ridesharing or on-demand mobility, a low-risk and practical approach would be to adjust laws and regulations to encourage business model innovations using existing resources. These include private vehicles and taxis as well as existing vehicle-fleets and personnel used to shuttle the elderly to local facilities. Policy Implication to China China can learn valuable lessons from the findings of the study due to its similar ageing experience. First, China should assess its unique regional mobility issues, focusing on both urban and rural needs. Adopting lowcost, easy-to-implement solutions, as seen in Japan, can provide immediate relief without heavy financial burdens. Leveraging existing resources and fostering partnerships among government, private sectors, and communities is crucial for effective implementation, particularly for increasing the effectiveness of emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles as a means of coping with the consequences of population ageing. Additionally, addressing barriers like low IT literacy among the elderly will enhance technology adoption. By integrating these insights, China can create tailored mobility solutions that genuinely support its ageing population and promote social and economic vitality. Jeongsoo YU is a professor at the Graduate School of International Cultural Studies, the Graduate School of Environmental Studies and the Green Goals Initiative at Tohoku University in Japan. He is interested in cross-sectoral research fields, which include carbon zero and circular economy policies, Life-Cycle-Assessment, developing a plastic sorter, and SDGs education, focusing especially on integrated waste management and sustainable recycling, such as End-of-Life Vehicles, E-waste, and plastic waste, among others. His research has been published in Waste Management, Waste Management & Research, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Journal of Urban Management, Recycling, Sustainability, Societies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Public Policy BULLETIN Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Overcome Mobility Challenges Caused by Population Ageing: A Case Study of Japan
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