25 Shuang Chen, Stuart Gietel-Basten. “Only Children and Low Family Size Ideals: Did the One-Child Policy Create a ‘Low-Fertility Trap’ in China?” European Journal of Population (2025) Focus of Study This study examines whether growing up as an only child reduces fertility ideals in urban China, using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and China’s 1980 one-child policy as an exogenous shock. Analyzing data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it nds that being an only child signi cantly lowers the ideal number of children and the likelihood of desiring two or more, supporting the "Low-Fertility Trap" hypothesis. Policy Recommendations Policymakers should move beyond simplistic fertility incentives and prioritize institutional reforms (e.g., hukou, pension) to address population aging. They should also design holistic policies addressing young people’s family-formation barriers to avoid further fertility declines. SCHOLARLY SHOWCASE Guillaume Marois, Stuart Gietel-Basten, Wolfgang Lutz “The Demographic Race between India and China.” Population Research and Policy Review (2025) Focus of Study This study explores whether India’s surpassing China as the world’s most populous country will lead to economic overtaking, using multi-dimensional demographic projections (age, sex, education, labor force participation) and the productivity-weighted labor force (PWLF) indicator. It nds China retains an economic edge for most of the next half-century due to better education and female labor force participation, while India’s potential depends on investing in these areas. Policy Recommendations India should boost educational access and female labor force participation. China should continue advancing education and adapt to aging via raising retirement age and automation, with both prioritizing human capital for long-term economic success. Economic Policy
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